A major new report predicting how Yorkshire will change over the next 20 years paints a picture of a more diverse region in which employment and life expectancy are likely to grow.

But Yorkshire Futures, which carries out research into the region, says people will feel the pinch through more expensive energy and food, increased congestion and less affordable housing.

It hopes that by highlighting future issues now, there will be enough time to work out ways to prevent them from ever materialising.

Yorkshire Futures director Les Newby said: "The shared understanding and discussion that this work promotes is key if we are to better prepare for and influence the future."

The report poses some key questions for decision-makers in the region – including how to reduce congestion, improve education results; prepare for an older, larger and more diverse population and ensure the right amount of housing is in the right places.

In terms of land, the region is likely to face "a range of competing and increasing pressures on housing and the infrastructure that goes with it such as schools, retail and leisure, employment land, food and energy production," the report says.

"This is at the same time as increasing flood risk and conservation needs, mean large areas of the region are inappropriate for much development. This will have a number of impacts, for
instance land and office rental prices would be expected to rise and green areas within cities will be under increasing pressure."

It suggests that new towns could be built in flat areas within commuting distance of Leeds, such as around Goole, Selby and the southern A1(M) corridor in North Yorkshire.

And as the pressure moves towards creating a low-carbon economy, more upland areas in the Pennines and flatland near the coast are likely to be used for wind turbines.

Another big issue facing the region is obesity – Yorkshire is predicted to be one of the worst affected regions in the long term with about 58 percent of adults expected to be obese by 2030.

"This report shows the importance of promoting healthy lifestyles. There's a lot businesses and schools can do to help and it's important they start doing it now," saidMr Newby.

The region's university towns are doing well, but a shift away from manufacturing towards service sectors could affect areas of South and West Yorkshire, York and Hull.

"Higher level skills development is key," the report states.

"The region has a deficit to make up, and substantial changes a likely to be needed to close this gap." New statistics show that while in 1998 vehicles travelled 38 million kilometres (24.2 million miles) in the region, that figure will shoot up to 59 million kilometres (36.6 million miles) by 2030 – putting Yorkshire's already badly congested roads under an impossible strain.

"Significant investment will be essential to allow the introduction of major improvements," the report notes.

Mr Newby said that the report pointed to the development of another so-called "golden triangle" between Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield over the next 20 years, those living in the middle being set to benefit from great growth opportunities.

"Leeds city region will grow the fastest, Sheffield will also do well, these places are on the up," he said. "Working patterns will change, with a lot more part time and home working - partly because of all the congestion on the roads - and people will start sharing office facilities.

"Overall Yorkshire will benefit from being a distinctive area, outside London it is the only region with a name, and in the age of globalisation it offers an identity that can be built upon.

Towns in the golden triangle, like Barnsley and Halifax, will really start coming into their own."

Future imperfect

58 per cent of adults obese by 2030

Life expectancy up by five years for men and three years for women

Oil prices expected to be between five-fold and 10- fold today's rates

Sea levels expected to rise between 15 and 75cm

People in employment set to rise from 2.6 million today to three million

People with higher education in employment set to rise from 27 per cent to 36 per cent

Number of households up by 30.6 per cent between 2001 and 2029